Was Obama’s re-election a surprise?

Not to those of you who follow and understand Socionomics.

The stock market predicted this outcome, no matter how close the polls were in the run up to the election – I had a nice bet on the outcome based solely on this theory.

You can find a lot of information from: www.socionomics.net

This can also be backed up by Elliott Waves publication: The Mania Chronicles (book) as you will see social mood in action at key market tops and bottoms and all the accompanying economic “projections”.  Def worth reading


Obama’s into his 2nd and final term as President of the USA – he can’t serve another term so he’s out of office in 4 years time whatever happens.  BUT, let’s make a few predictions based on Socionomics (my understanding of it):

  1. It ALL depends upon the stock market action in the preceding years prior to the 2016 elections – If the stock market is or has been DOWN hard in the preceding 2 years prior to election i.e. 2014 onwards then the odds of a change of political party is HIGH
  2. If the stock market has been rising steadily in the preceding 2 years 2014-2016 then things should be as they have been this time – roughly equal – when this occurs people tend not to “rock the boat” and keep things as they are and avoiding change – but probability suggests that after 2 successive terms of the same political party, the USA public are more likely to change the political party for the next President
  3. I’m expecting a very major Time Cycle to top out in 2013, this should have the effect of forcing the markets downwards – If this lasts until 2016 then the chances of a complete change of political party winning the race for the white house is VERY HIGH – this will be virtually confirmed by No.4 if No..4 occurs
  4. Assuming No.3 – in the preceding months in the run-up to the actual Presidential election if the markets continue to trend DOWN (hardish) then the odds are extremely high that the public will boot out the current political party and simply replace them with the opposition!

You can see that NONE of this is based on political policy!  Its based solely upon SOCIAL MOOD expectations based on stock market movements – obviously the bigger the stock market movements the better and I would only use this method on major things such as elections that occur infrequently – trying to use this to make daily or monthly predictions won’t work.

I’m based in the UK – in 2008 we had the credit crunch, banks going pear shaped (bust) etc etc – the government of the day was Socialists – the stock market tanked hard and furious 2008-09, elections were held in May 2010, from March 09 – May 2010 the stock market actually ROSE quite a lot – BUT the public obviously were still angry at the Labour government for “causing” the crash as they booted them out and swiftly changed their votes to the opposition parties! – This outcome could have been virtually predicted as the stock market, property and commodity markets fell hard in 2008 – people lost large %’s of their personal wealth – the natural emotion is to blame someone and who bigger or better to blame and inflict pain on than the government (of whom forces you to comply to laws and taxation….etc) by showing them whose boss and kicking them out of power (of which they crave!)

Check out the Wikipedia page – the figures might not be 100% accurate but you get the gist: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

If you are not looking at how things on greater scales all link into the markets then you are missing out – Life is all interlinked – and by ignoring the signs the vast majority of people suffer through ignorance that ultimately affects their personal wealth.  As I mention in “Your Investment Life” by failing to understand how everything is inter-linked you are putting your own financial future on the line through obtaining poor Investment results over the years, which ultimately affects the quality of your life upon retirement or whatever the purpose of the funds was for.

Anyway, let’s what how the markets unfold and what actually happens closer to the next election in 2016

The Hovis Trader

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