Was Obama’s re-election a surprise?

Not to those of you who follow and understand Socionomics.

The stock market predicted this outcome, no matter how close the polls were in the run up to the election – I had a nice bet on the outcome based solely on this theory.

You can find a lot of information from: www.socionomics.net

This can also be backed up by Elliott Waves publication: The Mania Chronicles (book) as you will see social mood in action at key market tops and bottoms and all the accompanying economic “projections”.  Def worth reading

PREDICTION:

Obama’s into his 2nd and final term as President of the USA – he can’t serve another term so he’s out of office in 4 years time whatever happens.  BUT, let’s make a few predictions based on Socionomics (my understanding of it):

  1. It ALL depends upon the stock market action in the preceding years prior to the 2016 elections – If the stock market is or has been DOWN hard in the preceding 2 years prior to election i.e. 2014 onwards then the odds of a change of political party is HIGH
  2. If the stock market has been rising steadily in the preceding 2 years 2014-2016 then things should be as they have been this time – roughly equal – when this occurs people tend not to “rock the boat” and keep things as they are and avoiding change – but probability suggests that after 2 successive terms of the same political party, the USA public are more likely to change the political party for the next President
  3. I’m expecting a very major Time Cycle to top out in 2013, this should have the effect of forcing the markets downwards – If this lasts until 2016 then the chances of a complete change of political party winning the race for the white house is VERY HIGH – this will be virtually confirmed by No.4 if No..4 occurs
  4. Assuming No.3 – in the preceding months in the run-up to the actual Presidential election if the markets continue to trend DOWN (hardish) then the odds are extremely high that the public will boot out the current political party and simply replace them with the opposition!

You can see that NONE of this is based on political policy!  Its based solely upon SOCIAL MOOD expectations based on stock market movements – obviously the bigger the stock market movements the better and I would only use this method on major things such as elections that occur infrequently – trying to use this to make daily or monthly predictions won’t work.

I’m based in the UK – in 2008 we had the credit crunch, banks going pear shaped (bust) etc etc – the government of the day was Socialists – the stock market tanked hard and furious 2008-09, elections were held in May 2010, from March 09 – May 2010 the stock market actually ROSE quite a lot – BUT the public obviously were still angry at the Labour government for “causing” the crash as they booted them out and swiftly changed their votes to the opposition parties! – This outcome could have been virtually predicted as the stock market, property and commodity markets fell hard in 2008 – people lost large %’s of their personal wealth – the natural emotion is to blame someone and who bigger or better to blame and inflict pain on than the government (of whom forces you to comply to laws and taxation….etc) by showing them whose boss and kicking them out of power (of which they crave!)

Check out the Wikipedia page – the figures might not be 100% accurate but you get the gist: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

If you are not looking at how things on greater scales all link into the markets then you are missing out – Life is all interlinked – and by ignoring the signs the vast majority of people suffer through ignorance that ultimately affects their personal wealth.  As I mention in “Your Investment Life” by failing to understand how everything is inter-linked you are putting your own financial future on the line through obtaining poor Investment results over the years, which ultimately affects the quality of your life upon retirement or whatever the purpose of the funds was for.

Anyway, let’s what how the markets unfold and what actually happens closer to the next election in 2016

The Hovis Trader

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Gold Analysis – “Hovis Trader Style”

Lets take a look at the Gold market.

I don’t look at fundamentals, of late a lot of talk about QE has been banded about – as with everything to do with Investing I find that every decision is based on our beliefs and assumptions whatever market you are trading/Investing.  Most people belong to the buy and hold camp probably because the long-term nature of all markets is to rise and grow, what most people don’t do is work out that although markets grow over the ultra long-term, at stages during this growth they stagnate and move sideways or downwards – it just so happens that over the ultra long-term growth in the markets can be backed up by fundamental analysis.

However, the intra-week swings can’t be backed up by this, but still the media try their best to attach news to the swings – one days its QE, the next its GDP figures moving price, I bet if you read 2 different media articles they’d often contradict one another as to the “reason” for a move – this is also true of ANY market

Lets take a look at a plain Gold chart  over the past year and a bit (June 2011-Nov 2012)

People In August 2011, still believed in Gold and those that bought at the tops are probably still holding on to it, probably not any futures holders as they’ve probably gone to the wall the following month during the decline.  Anyway the cold hard facts are that since the top in September 2011, Gold has yet to recover – regardless of the economic, political or fundamental reasons for it doing so.

This is why I trade, I’m not clever enough to know when the right time is (and neither are the people who sit through a 20% decline! unless they’d get out @ the top and back in again at the bottoms – making even MORE money) and I know that buying and holding will not live the way I want to live (by making a living from the markets).

Look at the chart of Gold, I’m pretty sure that during that period of time shown on the chart, Gold has thrown virtually everything at the Investor – A Top, a Bottom?, Uptrends, Downtrends and Sideways trading zones.  If you remember from the 1st few lessons in Market Education, there is no way to know for certain what a market is going to do – no way at all.

So how the hell do we make money from Trading/Investing in Gold?

Remember long-term buy and hold Investors barely break 10% average profit pa over numerous years, so for a start 10% will be our minimum target, but Ideally we want 20-30% out of this market in 12 months

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