The point of NO return

Please find below EVIDENCE of the dreaded 8% bond Yield that no country in the world wants as it’s the critical breaking point.

I’ve been a subscriber and supporter of Elliott Wave Internationals reports and accurate analysis for over 3 years now – although I don’t trade or invest based on their Elliott Waves, I find their research and analysis of great value, the stuff they cover is not covered by the main stream media, I don’t know why not but the main stream media just don’t have all the facts.

As I trade and Invest for a living I can’t work on maybe’s – I must have cast iron facts – actual numbers and figures formed into a chart does not lie – only the interpretation of that chart can cause confusion, but the facts are simply FACTS.

I’d recommend signing up for their FREE content as a minimum – you’ll then be one step ahead of the main crowd.

Obviously their paid for services cover more in-depth analysis and ground but still, the free stuff on their site is a gold mine if used properly.

Enjoy

The Hovis Trader

Portugal’s Bailout, One Year Later: Were You Prepared in Advance? Many analysts had opinions before the bailout, but no one was talking about the most important indicator April 26, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

Make no mistake: The stakes for financial and economic survival in Europe are high. Seemingly everyone — from investment bloggers to financial television hosts — has something to say about the European debt crisis.

But with so many divergent opinions to choose from, which ones should you trust?

That’s where Elliott Wave International’s global-market analysis team comes in. Our analysts cut through the noise of endless talking heads with an independent perspective. By focusing on objective Elliott waves and other technical indicators, they equip you to stay one step ahead of Europe’s financial turmoil.

Case in point: Just over one year ago in late March 2011, mainstream analysts conjectured about the probability of a Portuguese bailout. Many people had opinions, but no one was talking about the most important indicator, namely that Portugal’s borrowing costs had just crossed a critical threshold. No one, that is, except EWI European market analyst Brian Whitmer.

Here’s what he told his readers in the April 1, 2011, Global Market Perspective (emphasis added):

Observe the horizontal line on this chart of 10-year borrowing costs in Greece, Ireland and Portugal. It’s no magic number, but 8% seems to be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back. As the arrow on the left shows, Greek authorities activated their bailout package on April 23, 2010, two days after 10-year yields crossed 8%. In Ireland, bond yields surpassed 8% on November 10, 2010, and Irish authorities activated their bailout the following week. Mark your calendar, because Portuguese yields made the treacherous crossing two days ago. The implication is that the continent’s third sovereign bailout in less than a year has become a near certainty.

A “near certainty,” indeed. Just five days after Whitmer published this analysis, Portugal’s government officially requested a bailout, and, one month later, it got one.

You see, EWI’s global analysts like Whitmer don’t follow the talking heads nor do they rely on fundamentals — both of which can be misleading. Instead, they examine objective evidence and charts — like this one — to deliver crystal-clear, forward-thinking analysis.


Get FREE Access to the Report on the European Debt CrisisNow you can take control of your financial future with the prescient, objective insights of EWI’s global analysis in a special FREE report.

The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments equips you to get ahead of what is yet to come. You get 11 chart-filled articles loaded with our insights into the European debt crisis — plus a special excerpt from Robert Prechter’s New York Times bestseller Conquer the Crash.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Portugal’s Bailout, One Year Later: Were You Prepared in Advance?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

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Concerned about Europe?

Europe’s back in the press once more, many people don’t understand what’s happening.  I prefer to keep things as simple as possible and just look at the background data that is confirmed.  this way I stay out of the what if, can it do that debates that are endless.

At the end of the day – the FACTS speak for themselves.

Here’s a great article from my friends at Elliott Wave International – I think graph 2 tells the story and spells out whats ahead in the coming months.

I wonder if the mainstream media have reported these fact yet!?

enjoy.

THT

European Central Bank: “Great White Fear” Takes A Bite Out of Recovery EWI’s Global Market Perspective foresaw the shift in European banks from lenders to savers via one remarkable chart April 23, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

It’s been over two years since the European Central Bank began its open-heart surgery of the eurozone’s anemic economy. So far, the procedure has included an unprecedented $3 trillion-plus in bailouts, monetary transfusions, AND toxic debt transplants.

Yet, according to a recent slew of discomforting news reports, the economies across the pond would still flatline in seconds without constant life support. Here, an April 18, 2012, Wall Street Journal writes:

“Europe Hemorrhages through Refinancing Operation Band-Aid” and reveals that Europe’s banking sector has wolfed down three years of Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) in under four months.

The question is — what went wrong?

Well, to answer this, we have to go back to the drawing board to mid-2010. It was then that the European Central Bank and company released the rescue-package Kraken via a $1 trillion bailout of Greece and a full-fledged initiation of its LTRO.

And, as the following May 10, 2010, news items make plain, this credit-reflating beast was set to tear Europe’s economic bear to shreds:

  • “This is shock-and-awe, part II, in 3D, with a much bigger budget and more impressive array of special effects. The EU package eliminates the danger that Greece’s debt woes will ricochet through Europe’s banks.”(USA Today)
  • “This is a truly overwhelming force and should be more than sufficient to stabilize markets, prevent panic and contain the risk of contagion.” (Bloomberg Businessweek)

In the July 2010 Global Market Perspective, however, our analysts foresaw a fatal flaw in the plan. The first part was fine: The European Central Bank (ECB) bought packages of debt and resold them to smaller banks at a historically low interest rate.

BUT the second part didn’t work out: Instead of rebundling those loans and passing them on to small businesses to stimulate investment, THOSE banks redeposited the funds with the ECB. Riffing off the famous “Jaws” quote (“We’re gonna need a bigger boat”), the July 2010 Global Market Perspective captured the great-white fear circling the lending sector via the following chart of commercial banks’ usage of the ECB’s Deposit Facility and wrote:

“The chart roughly indicates the degree to which banks fear for the insolvency of one another. Banks receive below-market interest rates on their ECB deposits, so they’re generally loathe to hold significant funds there. As anxiety grows, however, so do banks’ deposits in the Facility, mainly because their desire for adequate interest gives way to their more essential need to safeguard principal … Because the [economic downturn] is still young, deposits at the ECB will likely keep rising. Like stocks, the casual approach to banking that existed up until now is in for a massive shift.”

Flash two years ahead. The April 2012 Global Market Perspective’s updated chart below shows that usage of the ECB’s Deposit Facility has indeed risen, nay doubled, since the original forecast.

The question now is not whether monetary policy will save Europe’s economy, but whether the one precondition for recovery — confidence — will return to lenders.


What the European Debt Crisis Could Mean for YOUR InvestmentsThe European Debt Crisis is affecting investments across the globe. Gain a valuable perspective on the European debt crisis and get ahead of what is yet to come in this FREE club resource from Elliott Wave International.Read Your Free Report Now: The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline European Central Bank: “Great White Fear” Takes A Bite Out of Recovery. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The EASIEST way to trade/invest

I’ve wanted to post and publish this blog for a long-time but have held off, whilst I built the site up with useable content to trade and invest profitably.

I don’t need much written content for this blog entry as the charts describe exactly what I’m talking about.

What makes a market stop dead in it’s tracks and reverse direction?

If you knew with virtual precision what a market was likely to do and during what timescale then you could trade/invest in virtual confidence of your expected outcome, with limited interference by you in managing the trade!

Study the chart to see what I’m saying:

Now I have to admit that the standard content you’ll find on this site AND the standardised trading methods available from any trader/investor will not allow you to trade the easiest way!  Unless you know what makes those markets turn and reverse at certain points and times then you have no choice but to trade/invest from a standard set of methods!

The charts show you what every single trader/investor wants to know – WHEN the market is due to turn.

Obviously I am showing you this AFTER the fact – at this stage I am NOT saying you can do it, but I believe it can be done – I’m currently working through my recommended W.D. Gann Course and I believe that it really can be done!  Here’s the link to the Gann page Click here.

In the chart above you’d have shorted the first section for 108 trading days = approx 5 months for a profit of 19%

The second trading zzone would be to go long and that lasted 124 trading days = 6 months for a profit of 27%

So in the course of 11 months your stripped out approx 46% from that market – UNleveraged

This is not that bad a return for a years investment making just 4 trades (Sell, Buy then Buy, Sell).

The chart above shows you the IDEAL set-up, I can tell you that my recommended course on Gann, the person behind that nailed the bottom in August 2011 & the subsequent rise up into the April 2012 high!  Well when I say nailed it, their calculations where 0.8% wrong!  A prediction made 6 months prior and was less than 1% out!  That’s what I call nailing the market.

One of the questions you should be asking yourself right now is:

  • “If I can TIME the market and KNOW when a uptrend is likely to start, what options do I have to exploit the move”

The answer is leverage – If you know that a market should go up you could load up on leverage (obviously a stop has to be in place) This then could turn a 20% move into a 40%/60%/100% + move – if you can use leverage with your account.

The BIG caveat is that you have to KNOW for a fact that the market will turn on your expected date and until that date arrives you simply do not know for certain!

I’ve been looking into this as an easier way to trade my SIPP as I can load up the leverage by way of a Covered Warrant (like an option) which straight away controls the maximum loss on the trade to the amount invested in the Covered Warrant – all that is needed is to search for the best Covered Warrant to invest in for that time period.

As I said I am in the midst of learning Gann’s techniques, if you want the course I recommend then you can access detail through the link above.  Obviously if I find they way I will post a few links to prove it’s worth.

As W.D. Gann said “Everything can be proved with Science and Mathematics” and I can’t see any reason why that can’t apply to the markets.

The simple truth is if you KNOW the market should be in an uptrend from a certain date to a future date then price action should follow one of Gann’s Angles – which is exactly what occurred in the chart shown in this post – it followed Gann’s 2 x 1 Angle, this means that PRICE is moving at twice the amount of TIME, so If a 1 x 1 (45 degree) angle = 1 pt x 1 day, a 2 x 1 chart = 2 pts x 1 day etc.

Place a 2 x 1 Gann angle from the low in August 2011 and see where it AND price ended on April 2nd 2012! – If your 2 x 1 angle fails to hit the price on 2nd April 2012 then your charts are probably not squared out correctly – this is a complex thing to do for such a simple concept!

How did Gann’s Law of Vibration work?  As I’ve detailed above, He KNEW what the trend of the market was going to be for a certain time period, all he had to do was then work out which of his geometric angles was in play during that move and hey presto he knew in advance what price the market would reach – I am not prepared to reveal the underlying cause of the Law of Vibration – it’s detailed in my recommended Gann course (link here)

I have studied in depth Gann’s work for the past couple of years and I’m starting to get a grip of it, future posts will cover Gann and his methods. WHY?   Because in my eyes his methods were and still are the best way to trade

For those interested the Chart above is of the Dow Jones Index

When it ALL goes wrong

Bad week on the trading front, all losses.

What do you do?

You just carry on and look for the next set-up.

Your left questioning what you did wrong, but if you did nothing wrong and the market simply moved opposite to what you were expecting there’s nothing you can do, those losses will be recouped over the coming weeks I’m confident of that, but what if the next set of trades go wrong?

It is perfectly possibly that they will, but I am confident in my trading set-up that I will recoup and more than make up for them losses during the year.  Remember I am confident that my trading system produces 70%+ win:loss ratio per annum –  The laws of probability say that it is perfectly possible for me to receive 3 -4 losing trades IN A ROW – I am always aware of that fact.

It does NOT stop the pain of having a loss though – I like to beat the market!

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